ABSTRACT
The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma’s detection, and were largely transient after Gamma’s detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil’s COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil’s COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Note The following manuscript has appeared as ‘Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals’ at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . One sentence summary COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
Background: A new SARS-CoV-2 lineage, named P.1 (20J/501Y.V3), has recently been detected in Brazil. Mutations accrued by the P.1 lineage include amino acid changes in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein that also are reported in variants of concern in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7) and South Africa (B.1.325).Methods: We isolated two P.1-containing specimens from nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples of patients of Manaus, Brazil. We measured neutralization of the P.1 virus after incubation with the plasma of 19 COVID-19 convalescent blood donors and recipients of the chemically-inactivated CoronaVac vaccine and compared these results to neutralization of a SARS-CoV-2 B-lineage previously circulating in Brazil.Findings: The immune plasma of COVID-19 convalescent blood donors had 6-fold less neutralizing capacity against the P.1 than against the B-lineage. Moreover, five months after booster immunization with CoronaVac, plasma from vaccinated individuals failed to efficiently neutralize P.1 lineage isolates.Interpretation: These data indicate that the P.1 lineage may escape from neutralizing antibodies generated in response to polyclonal stimulation against previously circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2.Funding: São Paulo Research Foundation, MCTI/FINEP, Medical Research Council, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, National Institutes of Health.Conflict of Interest: M.S.D. is a consultant for Inbios, Vir Biotechnology, NGMBiopharmaceuticals, and Carnival Corporation, and on the Scientific Advisory Boards of Moderna and Immunome. The Diamond laboratory has received funding support in sponsored research agreements from Moderna, Vir Biotechnology, and Emergent BioSolutions.Ethical Approval: All procedures followed the ethical standards of the responsible committee on humanexperimentation and approved by the ethics committees from the University of Campinas, Brazil (Approval number CONEP 4.021.484 for plasma collection of blood donors, CAEE32078620.4.0000.5404 and 30227920.9.0000.5404 for the sampling of vaccinated and viral genome sequencing, respectively). All patient data were anonymized before study inclusion.Informed consent was obtained from all subjects for being included in the study.